Listen to the audio version of this article. (Generated by A.I.)

Sixty years ago, California almonds were almost exclusively a domestic product, with nearly 75% of total production shipped within the United States and just 25% exported. Fast forward to today, as production has increased and more consumers learn about the benefits of almonds, that equation has flipped. Roughly 75% of almond supply is exported, while 25% remains in the domestic market.

That shift underscores how important global demand has become to the California almond industry. While export growth creates new opportunities for almonds, it also introduces new risks, especially because global markets are far from static.

“It would be an understatement to say that the past few years have not been really turbulent with a lot of changes going on, not only overseas but here in California,” said Julie Adams, vice president of global technical and regulatory affairs at the Almond Board of California, or ABC.

That turbulence reflects a culmination of climate variability, increasing regulatory pressures, geopolitical issues and increasing costs of production, all factors that affect long-term planning for growers and handlers.

How Markets Have Evolved
Over the past three decades, California almond exports have shifted in response to global demand and the need for diversification. In the early 1990s, Europe dominated the main markets for almonds. About 15 years later, India began to see a surge in demand, becoming one of the top three export destinations for almonds. In 2015, the transition of moving beyond Europe began, and India and China became leading shipment destinations.

That momentum changed again in 2018 when retaliatory tariffs came into effect, which ultimately changed the global trading landscape again.

“In 2020, China fell off the list of our top three export destinations, and we actually started to see greater diversification into new markets and regions,” Adams said. “The top 10 export markets now represent about 70% of where we were shipping.”

Looking to today, the industry’s top export markets are India, Spain and the UAE, with North Africa and Turkey also becoming important additions to ABC’s portfolio.

“The markets that got us to where we are today are not necessarily going to be the markets to get us to where we need to be tomorrow,” Adams reiterated.

While this diversification helps manage risk, it also means the industry must stay educated on global trade conditions. Taking a proactive stance, coupled with strong data and relationships, has helped the California almond industry respond swiftly and strategically to emerging challenges and opportunities.

“We’ve been able to adjust quickly as an industry and take advantage of the evolving global marketplace, whether it’s reduced duties, trade agreements or technical changes,” Adams explained.

Tariff Actions
Changes in U.S. trade policy became most evident when the Trump administration took office in 2025. Soon after, the launch of the America First strategy, focusing on bilateral trade agreements, shifted global trade dynamics.

During February through March 2025, tariffs were first applied on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, which prompted immediate retaliation from Canada and China.

Then in April, the U.S. announced reciprocal tariffs on “nearly every trading partner,” Dickson explained.

Most trading partners initially faced 10% tariffs, while China’s rate climbed as high as 125% before eventually falling to 10% by May 14. The impact on almonds was significant, with tariffs rising as high as 55%.

A second wave of action became more country specific. The U.S. administration pivoted away from the blanket 10% rate, and most rates varied from 15% to 41%.

Further actions came out targeting Brazil for security reasons, India related to purchasing Russian oil, and additional tariffs on China. Some of these tariffs have since been reduced or removed completely, which has triggered volatility among trading partners.

While these tariffs have undoubtedly impacted agricultural goods, exemptions were expanded in late 2025 on various key agricultural products and inputs such as pesticides and veterinary drugs, essential for ag producers.

“I do believe there is a real willingness by the administration to listen to some of this pressure that is on farmers as they’re trying to keep costs down while holding export positions in light of competing origin trade agreements,” Dickson said.

Moreover, these tariffs are applied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, which is currently under review by the Supreme Court, meaning further changes remain possible, Dickson noted.

Impacts on the Almond Industry
These tariffs have created buyer uncertainty that impacts domestic and export markets, while supply chain stability and continuity are important.

“Customers are really not confident enough to go out and buy long-term high quantities the way they typically would, which has resulted in this hand-to-mouth buying pattern,” explained Jonathan Hoff, chief executive officer at Monte Vista Farming and chair of ABC’s Technical and Regulatory Affairs Committee.

That’s where the almond industry’s efforts to diversify into new markets and product innovation have paid off.

“The fact that the industry has done such a good job of diversifying itself amongst all of these various markets has helped to mitigate the impact of one specific market pulling back as a result of uncertainty,” Hoff said.

Progress on Technical Barriers
On the technical front, one of the industry’s most significant recent wins this year came in Japan, known to have some of the strictest protocols for aflatoxin of all U.S. almond imports. The protocol called for 100% of U.S. shipments to be tested, and the testing method was also inconsistent with what other markets or the U.S. currently use.

This created a lot of rejections where the only option was to bring the product back to the U.S., making it costly and time-consuming.

ABC worked in close collaboration with USDA to identify a protocol acceptable to both countries. After more than 15 years of efforts, including several trips to Japan and visits from Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare, or MHLW, to California almond facilities, a revised protocol was finalized in 2025.

“Now we have a pre-export check in place that allows us to inspect the goods via a standardized and agreed upon methodology,” Hoff said. “MHLW has agreed that goods shipped to Japan under the protocol will be subject to 5% random inspection, a big decrease from 100%.”

That inspection rate will drop to 4% in April 2026, making almonds the only nut commodity to achieve this kind of progress under such stringent protocols.

Educational Visits to D.C.
ABC continues to pursue new market development opportunities for almonds, leveraging USDA/FAS programs such as the Regional Agricultural Promotion Program, or RAPP, and the America First Trade Promotion Program, or AFTPP, which was recently launched. These programs aim to expand global market access and create new opportunities for American farmers.

While farming in California comes with immense regulatory pressures, those standards have given almond growers a leg up when customers or regulators come asking for assurances on stewardship, carbon reduction or fair labor practices. These requirements are already being implemented on almond operations across the state.

“The same can’t be said for our competitors in those same markets,” Hoff said.

Each year, a visit to Washington, D.C., allows ABC staff, growers, handlers and key industry members the opportunity to engage with stakeholders, government personnel and lawmakers, providing an update on almond issues and what’s really happening in the orchard, especially when it comes to grower profits.

A recent trip to the United States Trade Representative focused on the vast difference between farm price per pound and break-even value per pound.

“Even though export values in total have been stable to increasing, on a grower basis, price per pound back to the farm matters,” Hoff said.

Looking Ahead
As global markets continue to evolve, the California almond industry must remain resilient, with continued progress in diversification, overcoming technical barriers and persistent engagement. Supported by its growers, continued education and sound data, the industry is well positioned to adapt and endure the ever-changing trade environment.

“This is an industry that has basically supported itself and worked hard to open markets and make its own path,” Adams concluded. “It’s a challenging environment for ag, but the fact is we’ve weathered shipping issues, retaliatory tariffs and technical barriers, opening new markets so we can continue to support our growers and communities, it’s pretty remarkable.”