Pistachio prices are expected to hold steady, even as California producers shake a record crop from their trees this year.
The state’s pistachio crop will likely exceed
1 billion pounds for the first time, but favorable long-term demand should help support prices despite the global economic downturn amid the COVID-19 pandemic, according to both Rabobank and American Pistachio Growers.
“We expect average returns to the U.S. grower to remain relatively stable through 2025-26, but potential volatility is always looming, particularly during these unprecedented times,” said Rabobank authors David Magaña and Roland Fumasi in their July 2020 pistachio market outlook.
They estimate an average return to growers of about $2.50 per in-shell pound between 2020-21 and 2025-26. The prices include average premiums and bonuses.
Future pricing will depend on overall U.S. production, foreign competition, COVID-19 issues, trade barriers in various countries, tariffs in key markets and, ultimately, demand by consumers for pistachios, said APG President Richard Matoian.
“We believe that, for the immediate and probably long-term future, pricing will remain stable and slightly increase for producers,” Matoian added. “However, any one of these issues could cause a more immediate spike upward or drop downward in prices, affecting grower returns.”